The Science Signals Climate Chaos
Two of our members share their alarm
In this issue we bring two short pieces about climate science—first, about the slowing of the waters off of Europe, and second, about the warming of Earth’s global air temperatures. While you may be reading about these topics in the news, it’s important for us at Third Act Maine to register the implications of these scientific findings for life on this planet and acknowledge the profound disquiet it can arouse in us personally. Tom Mikulka, co-founder of Third Act Maine and former science teacher, is an avid reader of the kind of science articles that have not yet hit the general news outlets. David von Seggern has a doctorate in earth science.
Tom Mikulka Shares Concerning Revelations About AMOC
The 2004 sci-fi film, The Day After Tomorrow was widely criticized by climate scientists and climate deniers alike. In the movie, arctic superstorms develop overnight and create a new ice age for anything in its path.
Perhaps this film was prescient, for now climate scientists are warning of a significant, rather permanent change in weather throughout the globe if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) collapses.
The AMOC runs from Greenland to the Equator and can be thought of as a conveyor belt driven by differences in temperature and salinity. Warm, salty water moves on the surface northward to Greenland, and cold, saltier water moves along the bottom back to the equator. It’s a slow process where one complete rotation takes from 600 to 1000 years. The present introduction of fresh water from the increased melting ice of Greenland threatens to disrupt the AMOC. This is the same event that preceded the last ice age. Could we be looking at something as catastrophic as the movie portrayed?
Studies in the past year found that the AMOC is weakening and likely to collapse. One study found that it could collapse between now and the year 2100 while the latest study concluded that collapse was likely with no dates specified. It was predicted that temperature in several European cities would drop significantly. For example, the future February average temperature in London would drop from the current 45°F to 18°F. The good news? The transition would be slow and would last approximately 100 years once the collapse began. The bad news is that it would be catastrophic and irreversible.
Along with significant cooling for northern European countries, drought conditions are also likely to seriously impact agriculture. Changes in precipitation induced by AMOC could severely disrupt the ecosystem of the Amazon rainforest. Huge parts of Europe and Russia would plunge into drought, and half of the world’s land for growing corn and wheat could dry out.
What about here in Maine? The Gulf Stream will likely not be affected and our temperatures will continue to increase while Europe’s will decrease. Who would have thought that global warming would result in some regions becoming hotter while others got colder? The correct name for it is climate chaos and it’s begun to arrive.
What can we do about it? Keep reading this newsletter and share it with friends. Join one of the regional Third Act Hubs, attend their Zoom meetings and decide on an action (or propose an innovative action!) that suits you. At this point, we all have to be willing to go beyond our comfort zone if we are to have any impact.
David von Seggern Realizes the Need to Act Is Urgent
I am a retired earth scientist (seismology) and not an atmospheric chemist. But here is the most alarming chart I have seen (and I have been following climate change for decades). The chart, updated daily, shows the mean global surface temperatures by day for every year since 1940. It draws on datasets provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a European Union climate agency with sophisticated climate analysis tools. I trust them not to skew the data.
Note the upward drift of the 2023 (orange) line compared to the historical mean lines, and compared to any previous year. Global warming in 2023 accelerated, principally after June 2023 and continued into 2024. The January-February 2024 temperatures in the black, thick line are already starting off at several tenths °C above the 2023 values.
The scourge of global warming is upon us, and it is no surprise that Maine has seen some of its worst winter storms in the past three months, with the Governor’s call for disaster declarations. Climate scientists are aghast at this recent data. Setting blame on El Nino conditions or other possible factors is generally agreed to fall far short of the full explanation. We are truly left with looking at the acceleration of global warming.
The urgency of action to prevent the worst effects of climate change becomes greater by the day. We must move forward quickly and with resolve to implement renewable-energy and energy-efficiency solutions we know will work. Some still make excuses such as: it’s too costly, it’s too disruptive, it’s too inconvenient. The costs, the disruption, the inconvenience of acute climate change are already upon us and will multiply in the years to come if we and our governments fail to act.
Statewide Call to Action to Urge Divestment of Fossil Fuels
C’mon, everybody! Let’s show up in Augusta in good number next Thursday!
Where: Maine PERS office, 139 Capitol Street, Augusta
When: 8:30 - 9:30 am Thursday, March 14. Assemble in the Maine PERS parking lot so we can chant and sing protest songs as Board members arrive for their regular meeting.
RSVP here so we know who’s coming and can help arrange carpools.
Background: In 2021 Maine became the first state to mandate divestment of state retirement accounts from fossil fuels. Three years later the Maine Public Employees Retirement System’s Board refuses to implement the law. State law requires Maine PERS to divest from fossil fuels. It’s as simple as that. Maine PERS CEO Becky Wyck will inform the Board of our proposals and justifications for implementation.
If you can’t make it to the standout, please write to Brian H. Noyes, Board Chair, PO Box 349, Augusta, ME 04332-0349.
Statewide Free Film Screening: Rising Waters on the Boston Waterfront
Inundation District (trailer here) explores the implications of Boston’s decision to spend more than $20 billion on building a new waterfront district on landfill and at sea level. The film focuses on the impacts for coastal communities of rising seas and strengthening storms. Watch the documentary in advance, and then join an online discussion of the film. The event is free; donations to the BTS Center welcomed.
Register here to receive a link to the film.
Online film discussion: Tuesday, March 19, 7 - 8 pm
Central Maine Hub
Mark your calendars for an Earth Day event in Waterville on April 21 sponsored by several groups, including Third Act Maine. Help create a painting from 12-3 pm that shows your love for the Earth. At 3 pm, watch a documentary film, One Man Dies a Million Times and the Seeds That May Save Him, about seed saving in the 1940s in Russia. Film tickets available here. Afterwards, hear from Will Bonsall about his own, massive seed-saving project in Maine.
Greater Farmington Hub
Despite freezing cold temperatures and severe winds, about twenty Third Act Mainers stood out for two hours in Farmington on February 29 to call attention to the need to mitigate the growing climate crisis emergency. During that time, the FEMA office was taking applications from residents and businesses after recent flooding.
We talked with a FEMA representative about concerns that insurance companies long ago stopped offering flood insurance. Now FEMA has to pick up the pieces. The demonstration stressed the need to get ahead of “picking up the pieces.” Our focus was on large banks and their investments in fossil fuels, especially new explorations in tar sands.
Midcoast Hub
Plans are afoot for several Earth Day events and an Arbor Day event. We are also actively participating in the Waldo County Climate Action Coalition, comprised of many environmentally concerned groups.
Member Profile: Bill Rixon
Last September, Bill Rixon sent a letter to L.L. Bean's CEO, Stephen Smith, and enclosed his L.L. Bean credit card because he no longer wanted to be associated with Citibank. Citibank partners with L.L. Bean to issue the card—and it also invests billions of dollars in the fossil fuel industry. Rixon followed the letter with another, imploring Smith with reasons to have a serious conversation with Citibank: “You could be a hero! You could burnish and bolster L.L. Bean's reputation of being a good steward of the environment. You could put L.L. Bean on the right side of history by helping to move Citibank away from their current practice.”
Then, with large homemade signs, Bill began to stand out several days each week in front of the L.L. Bean retail store and corporate headquarters. One day, CEO Smith stopped by to chat. But nothing changed. Seven months later, Bill is still at it: 7:30 am at corporate headquarters, and weekend afternoons at the retail store. He also joins in many other Third Act Maine standouts and events.
Bill’s activism goes way back to the 1960s. He has protested the Vietnam war, marched for Civil Rights, demanded justice for the Chicago Seven at their trial, and decried nuclear energy. He used to traveled out of state to protest climate change. These days, he focuses on local efforts.
“I constantly fight despair about climate change,” he said." I think about birds, small mammals, large mammals. Climate changes in the past took tens of thousands of years. Now, it’s happening in decades. So it’s much harder for species to adapt. We’re the reason. When I’m out there on the streets, in some way it makes it better.”
“People often ask me what Third Act Maine hopes to accomplish by standing out on the sidewalk in front of L.L. Bean or Chase Bank. We are under no illusion that these corporations will soon change their business model which is complicit in causing the climate crisis, but that it is important for us to bear witness and at a minimum let these companies know that they are not going to get a free pass in our communities. Also, we hope to help educate the public.”
Sometimes other Third Act Mainers join him at Beans; most often he stands alone. He wishes more people would come out, emphasizing that it’s usually a social time and always interesting. People often come by the retail store and thank him for being there. Most are supportive, he says. To the skeptics, he just listens and tries to answer their questions. Rarely are people angry. “I’d love to have others join me at anytime," he says. " His email is: rixonw9@gmail.com.
Bill especially looks forward to his early morning standouts. Each weekday, as he stands out in front of L.L. Bean’s corporate offices, he sees a carpool load of 8- or 9-year-olds on their way to school. At first, the vehicle's windows would roll down and the children would wave and smile as they passed. Now they hold up signs, “Protect Earth," written in crayon.
"I’m doing it for them in a sense,” he says. “I think they’d be disappointed if I stopped.”
Great newsletter TAM. I love your inclusion of the voices of these three Maine Third Activists. It's very exciting to read what's going on in regional groups all over the state. I've stood out with Bill and been very inspired by his quiet, fierce witnessing and recommend the experience to one and all.